hypotheticalhurricanesfandomcom-20200216-history
2018 Atlantic hurricane season (Cooper - Old)
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the final year in a consecutive string of three active seasons. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period in which most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Kirk set a record for the fourth-longest-lived tropical cyclone ever observed in the Atlantic basin. Pre-season forecasts called for an above average season due to neutral conditions in the El Nino Southern Oscillation which were also present during the hyperactive 2017 season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its first outlook on May 20, predicting a total of 13-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes. The Colorado State University (CSU) also called for an above average season with 14-18 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurrricanes. In mid-July, the CSU updated their forecasts, bringing the total number of named storms down to 14-17 named storms and 7-9 hurricanes with no change in the number of major hurricanes. In early August, the NOAA raised their predictions on the number of hurricanes to 7-9 while keeping the numbers of named storms and major hurricanes the same. Overall, forecasts for the season were relatively accurate. The season's impact was widespread and rather destructive. In late July and early August, Chris caused 7 fatalities in the Lesser Antilles. The season's strongest, deadliest, and most destructive storm, Hurricane Gordon, caused 96 fatalities in Jamaica and Cuba as well as causing $4 billion in damages in early September. Gordon also caused another $8 billion in damages and 18 fatalities in Florida a few days later. Hurricane Isaac caused extensive damage in the Leeward Islands and the Carolinas later in the month. Hurricane Leslie struck the Carolinas in early October just 2 weeks after Isaac and caused $5 billion in damages. Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:800 height:240 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/06/2018 till:01/12/2018 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/07/2018 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0–62_km/h)_(TD) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117 km/h)_(TS) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(119–153_km/h)_(C1) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph_(154-177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-130_mph_(178-209-km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131-155_mph_(210-249_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_>=156_mph_(>=250_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:24/06/2018 till:26/06/2018 color:TS text:"Alberto (TS)" from:16/07/2018 till:22/07/2018 color:C1 text:"Beryl (C1)" from:25/07/2018 till:30/07/2018 color:TS text:"Chris (TS)" from:07/08/2018 till:09/08/2018 color:TS text:"Debby (TS)" from:14/08/2018 till:23/08/2018 color:C2 text:"Ernesto (C2)" from:24/08/2018 till:30/08/2018 color:C1 text:"Florence (C1)" barset:break from:30/08/2018 till:08/09/2018 color:C4 text:"Gordon (C4)" from:06/09/2018 till:11/09/2018 color:TS text:"Helene (TS)" from:13/09/2018 till:14/09/2018 color:TD text:"Nine (TD)" from:14/09/2018 till:24/09/2018 color:C4 text:"Isaac (C4)" from:21/09/2018 till:26/09/2018 color:C2 text:"Joyce (C2)" from:25/09/2018 till:18/10/2018 color:C3 text:"Kirk (C3)" barset:break from:05/10/2018 till:12/10/2018 color:C1 text:"Leslie (C1)" from:15/10/2018 till:17/10/2018 color:TD text:"Fourteen (TD)" from:26/10/2018 till:29/10/2018 color:TS text:"Michael (TS)" from:18/11/2018 till:21/11/2018 color:TS text:"Nadine (TS)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/06/2018 till:01/07/2018 text:June from:01/07/2018 till:01/08/2018 text:July from:01/08/2018 till:01/09/2018 text:August from:01/09/2018 till:01/10/2018 text:September from:01/10/2018 till:01/11/2018 text:October from:01/11/2018 till:01/12/2018 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" Systems Tropical Storm Alberto On June 21, a cold front left the coast of the eastern United States. The front stalled over the Atlantic Ocean, and an extratropical low formed from the northern part of the front and began to undergo a tropical transition over the Gulf Stream. On June 24, the low transitioned into a tropical depression while off the coast of Virginia. The depression accelerated northeastward and strengthened over warm waters, becoming Tropical Storm Alberto on June 25 at an unusually high latitude of 40°N. Alberto continued to follow the Gulf Stream northeastward and reached a peak intensity at 50 mph (85 km/h) before encountering much cooler waters outside the Gulf Stream. Alberto began weakening over cold waters on June 26 before degenerating intoto a non-tropical remnant low later that day. Hurricane Beryl An upper-level low formed north of Hispaniola on July 13. Interaction with a nearby trough allowed the low to strengthen and organize into a tropical depression on July 16. The depression tracked northeast through the open Atlantic Ocean, and on July 17 began producing tropical storm-force winds. The NHC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Beryl in their advisories at 12:00 UTC the same day. As the storm continued to track northeastward, it continued to intensify under favorable conditions presented by ideal atmospheric conditions. On July 18, a banding eye feature became evident, and on the following day the NHC upgraded Beryl to a hurricane. Continuing northeastward, Beryl intensified a little further to reach peak winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) on July 20. As Beryl moved over cooler waters on July 21, the storm weakened and fell back to tropical storm intensity. The following day, Beryl became post-tropical over cold waters while around 300 miles west of the Azores before being absorbed by a stationary front. Tropical Storm Chris A tropical wave left the coast of Africa on July 21. The wave tracked across the tropical Atlantic with little change in strength and organization. on July 24, the wave began to show signs of significant organization, and the NHC designated it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 05:00 UTC the next day. The disturbance continued to organize, and the NHC reclassified it as Tropical Storm Chris when it was located 280 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Chris continued to track westward and gradually strengthened. Passing over the Windward Islands on July 26, Chris brought heavy rains and triggered landslides in St. Lucia and Martinique. Chris gradually began to lose strength over the Caribbean Sea, and it weakened to a tropical depression on July 27. The storm continued to move steadily westward and failed to restrengthen despite conditions being marginally favorable. On July 28, Chris degenerated to an open tropical wave. Tropical Storm Debby A tropical wave entered the Atlantic Ocean on July 31. Over the next week, the wave drifted westward and failed to organize due to significant upper-level wind shear. The wave entered the Gulf of Mexico on August 6 and organized significantly. A reconnaissance flight into the system the following day discovered a well-defined central dense overcast developing within the system, although a well-defined center had not yet been established. The NHC designated the disturbance as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four at 12:00 UTC on August 7. Over the next few hours, the system continued to organize and became Tropical Storm Debby at 17:00 UTC. As the storm tracked northwest, it slowly intensified and organized. On August 8, a well organized Debby made landfall in Port O'Connor, Texas. Heavy rains from the storm caused coastal flooding that killed 3 and caused $20 million (2018 USD) in damages. As it moved inland, the storm was reported to have spawned at least 4 tornadoes, all of which were rated EF0. Debby continued to rapidly weaken over land before dissipating over eastern Texas mid-day on August 9. Hurricane Ernesto A tropical wave left the coast of Africa on August 10 and moved northwest across the Atlantic Ocean. By moving into cooler waters, the wave became deprived of warmth and began to decay. Howver, the wave reentered warmer waters as it turned further to the north and it began to strengthen. On August 14, the wave became a tropical depression after organizing significantly. Tracking generally eastward, the depression continued to intensify, and the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Storm Ernesto on August 15. As it continued to move east-northeast, Ernesto steadily intensified into a hurricane on August 17. Ernesto continued to strengthen even as it moved over cooler waters the next day. On August 19, Ernesto reached Category 2 intensity while west of the Azores, peaking at 110 mph (175 km/h) before beginning to weaken the next day. From August 21 to August 23, Ernesto rapidly weakened over cold waters before finally transitioning to an extratropical cyclone on August 23. Hurricane Florence On August 24, a tropical depression formed from a tropical wave that had tracked northwest off the African coast 3 days prior. The nascent depression remained nearly motionless over the Atlantic Ocean as it steadily intensified. By August 25, the depression was already producing wind speeds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Storm Florence accordingly.Category:Future hurricane seasons